Let’s be honest: that one per cent lead is not really a majority for
the Union. That one per cent lead is all the No Campaign could muster
for the Union, despite throwing the entire arsenal of City of London financial fear at Scotland.
Those terrifying threats of collapsing banks and mystery currencies and
runaway businessmen – well, they have only convinced a mere one per
cent of Scots we are better together.
It's clear that without fear, there would be a Scottish majority
ready to go. And that means the current Union 1.0 looks illegitimate.
That works the other way too: any sudden surge for the No Campaign
would hardly be lead to a legitimate Union either.
From what I can
see, both options currently on the table look set to make millions
angry. So what options are there that would work out in a way that made
the most Scotsmen and Englishmen happy?
The main argument coming
out of Scotland is they want to be a nation again – they want the
symbolic side of independence – and they want complete freedom to build
the more social Scotland the way they have always wanted. They hate
neo-liberalism. And I’m convinced the majority of Scottish voters would
choose to go if they knew there was a safe way to maintain a currency
Union with England. And it’s fair to say: England doesn’t want to pay
for this socialism.
Were both Edinburgh and London to be interested in working something
out that would make the maximum number of happy Englishmen and Scotsmen
they would probably do something like this. Whatever the result on
Thursday they would declare a constitutional convention to dissolve
Union 1.0 and set about creating a Union 2.0. But what might that United
Kingdom look like?
I think this could take inspiration from the
European Union – and take it much further. The outcome might look
something like this. The old Union 1.0 would be dissolved and both
England and Scotland would become independent. The new United Kingdom
would then be founded again as a sort of super-tight European Union
between two (or more, we’ll see) independent countries.
But what
would we share in Union 2.0? To make it work, Westminster and Holyrood
would both have to make a grand bargain. The Scots would get to keep the
pound. That means there would be a currency union and a super-strict
banking and fiscal union. The English would get to keep the British
Army. That means there would be a super-tight defense, diplomatic and
intelligence union. And of course, the Queen would still be the Queen,
and everyone still British.
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